Is it possible to forecast economic crises? Economic researchers have been grappling with this topic for generations. The outcome of all their efforts is a large number of to some extent contradictory theories. Regarding the economy as a living – pulsating – system, which organises itself and is in constant interaction with its environment, provides extensive insights and forms the basis for this book. The author Peter Meier presents a system that enables demand for capital goods to be forecast quite reliably up to eighteen months into the future, based on global economic indicators. In addition, the author establishes ten assumptions for economic forecasting that can be checked periodically. They can be used to gauge the approximate timing of an impending global economic crisis by more than a year in advance.
Peter Meier is a production engineer from Goldach and was the CEO of the precision machine tool company Starrag, Switzerland for many years. For decades, he has produced customised forecasts for companies and industries that are used to interpret the economic situation and for strategic planning. His forecasting is continued today by a team at hpo forecasting ag, for which he still provides conceptual support. He also sits on the supervisory boards of various companies in the machinery industry.